Posts Tagged ‘TORONTO’

MLS® home sales rebound in the second quarter

Affordable Housing, Alberta, British Columbia, Canada, Community Service, Faith-based organizations, Financing, New Brunswick, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Uncategorized | Posted by admin
Jul 15 2009

National resale housing market activity bounced back strongly in the second quarter of 2009 above levels reported for the same period last year. Demand continues to rebound sharply in some of the most expensive markets in the country, skewing the national average price upward.

According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales, via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards, totaled 147,351 units in the second quarter of 2009 – the fourth strongest quarterly sales figure ever. Up 1.4 per cent from the second quarter of 2008, this marks the first year-over-year increase in quarterly activity since the fourth quarter of 2007.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, national MLS® home sales numbered 114,173 units in the second quarter, jumping up a record 31.5 per cent from the first quarter of 2009.

“Potential buyers who moved to the sidelines late last year when economic uncertainty peaked are returning to the housing market now that the worst of the recession may be behind us,” said Dale Ripplinger, President of The Canadian Real Estate Association.

Seasonally adjusted resale activity in the second quarter was up from the previous quarter in about 85 per cent of local markets. Quarterly activity increases in Toronto (45 per cent), Vancouver (77 per cent), Montreal (33 per cent), Calgary (66 per cent) and Edmonton (39 per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity.

Strong upward momentum for monthly sales activity was sustained throughout the second quarter. June marked the fifth consecutive month in which activity was up from month-ago levels. Some 41,304 homes traded hands via the MLS® of real estate boards in Canada on a seasonally adjusted basis in June 2009. This is up 8.7 per cent from May and represents the first time since January 2008 that monthly activity topped 40,000 units.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS® home sales climbed 17.9 per cent year-over-year to 54,616 units in June 2009. This is on par with the record for the month of June set in 2007 and is the fourth highest level for activity in any month on record.

The national MLS® residential average sale price reached the highest quarterly level ever in the second quarter of 2009. At $318,696, the average sale price was up half a percent from the previous record set in the second quarter of 2008.

The national average home price also scaled new heights on a monthly basis, climbing 3.6 per cent year-overyear to $326,613 in June 2009. However, only 13 local markets posted new average price records in June, less than a handful of which are among the most active or expensive. The strong rebound in sales activity, not price, in Canada’s most expensive markets is skewing average prices upward nationally and in some provinces, just as a sharp decline in activity in these markets skewed the average lower in late 2008.

MLS® home sales rebound in the second quarter. The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was up 1.7 per cent year-over-year in June 2009 – less than half of the percentage increase in the unweighted national average price.

The supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market continued retreating in second quarter. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings were down 16.9 per cent from the previous quarter to 197,049 units, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2005.

Nationally, the number of months of inventory was 4.2 months in June 2009. This is the lowest level since August 2007, and well down from the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The residential dollar volume for MLS® sales jumped 40.6 per cent on a seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter basis in the second quarter of 2009, to reach $34.8 billion.

“Low interest rates have improved the affordability of homeownership, as have price adjustments in housing markets that previously experienced rapid price increases,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Housing markets where negotiations recently favoured the buyer have become more balanced and the stage is being set for modest price appreciation as inventories are drawn down by sales.”

“Sales momentum remains strong going into the second half of 2009,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “Chances are good that the number of transactions in the second half of 2009 will surpass levels in the first half of the year.”

http://www.myseatosky.com/blog/?p=231

reviewed by Moishe Alexande, CFC canadian funding corp CEO

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Government stimulus could help Ontario’s construction industry weather the recession

Affordable Housing, Alberta, British Columbia, Canada, Community Service, Faith-based organizations, Financing, New Brunswick, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Saskatchewan, Uncategorized, disabilities | Posted by admin
Jul 08 2009

135,000 new workers still needed over the next decade

WINDSOR, ON, July 8 /CNW/ – Ontario’s construction industry could weather
the economic downturn better than many other sectors as proposed government
infrastructure spending provides a soft landing according to figures released
today in the Construction Sector Council’s (CSC) fifth annual edition of
“Construction Looking Forward,” a detailed industry outlook scenario of labour
market trends from 2009 to 2017 in Ontario.
While the recession has weakened housing and industrial activity, other
construction sectors are expected to see employment gains in 2009 and 2010
associated with increased government infrastructure (highway, bridge and other
engineering) spending that potentially offsets employment losses.
Over the remainder of the outlook the overall economy recovers and the
expected increase in construction activity and the need to replace retiring
baby boomers translates into the demand for 135,000 new jobs over the next
decade.
“Due to the size and complexity of the Ontario market, there are varying
degrees of positive construction employment across the province, with the GTA
expecting to realize important gains in the short term,” said George
Gritziotis, Executive Director of the Construction Sector Council. “Despite
the downturn, employment numbers should remain steady as several proposed
major infrastructure projects across Ontario come on-line.”
The CSC report breaks down employment needs across five Ontario regions:
Northern, Eastern, Western, Central, and the Greater Toronto Area and each
have specific circumstances. The GTA will lead the province in construction
employment over the next few years as growth remains steady. Other regions of
the province however will feel the effects of the recession more strongly over
the next three years.
“Transportation and other infrastructure related projects will keep our
industry moving in the next few years,” said Rob Bradford, Executive Director
of the Ontario Road Builders Association. “Meeting industry’s demand will
require a workforce that is flexible as opportunities occur across the
province and workers will need to move to where the jobs are.”
Overall construction employment in the CSC trades is expected to increase
slightly from 2009 – 2011. From 2012 to 2017, growth in construction
employment will average 2.7% annually. These additions to the workforce will
come as the overall growth in the Ontario labour force slows to 1% or less.
Construction employers will be competing for a steadily growing share of the
provincial workforce.
“We need to continue to plan for our existing and future workforce
needs,” said Pat Dillon, Business Manager of the Ontario Building and
Construction Trades Council. “Governments need to step up apprenticeship and
recruitment programs, and put in place measures that include tax relief to
facilitate the mobility of our current displaced workforce to ensure that we
have the skilled labour ready to take on new projects and replace retiring
workers.”
“For Ontario’s construction industry, it remains imperative to promote
construction careers, attract youth and enhance training programs,” said Mark
Arnone, Director, Projects and Modifications, Ontario Power Generation
(Nuclear). “Future major industrial and engineering projects will need a
skilled work force to sustain growth and build Ontario’s future.”

The Construction Sector Council is a national organization committed to
developing a highly skilled workforce – one that will support the future needs
of the construction industry in Canada. Created in April of 2001, and financed
by both government and industry, the CSC is a partnership between labour and
business.
The CSC’s “Construction Looking Forward” national and regional forecasts
provide colleges, labour and industry with accurate information on labour
supply and demand to support the future needs of the construction industry in
Canada.
For a copy of the Ontario labour market forecast visit our website:
www.csc-ca.org.

http://www.dailycommercialnews.com/nw/12938/cb

viewed by Moishe Alexander, Canadian Funding corp CEO

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The oversold story of the Canadian recession

Affordable Housing, Alberta, British Columbia, Canada, New Brunswick, Ontario, Quebec, Uncategorized | Posted by admin
Jun 29 2009

Canadian Funding Corp points to here – what is hopefully one of the last of a once-robust breed – The Apocalyptic Canadian Housing Market Story:

Judging by the latest real estate data, the Canadian housing market could scarcely be better. Average home prices are up more than 16 per cent this year, and in May they hit an all-time monthly high, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. By those numbers, Canada didn’t just sidestep the housing market crash that continues to plague the United States, it sailed right through it virtually unscathed. And yet, there are plenty of signs that the Canadian housing market is still sitting on some very shaky ground—and even the potential that Canada’s big housing crash is yet to come.

Yadda yadda yadda.

We all know that the proximate cause of the US recession was the bursting of its housing market bubble: it blew up banks, laid waste to personal balance sheets, and left millions of people stuck in homes whose mortgages were more than their market value.

And then Canada went into recession. Unfortunately, this set up the following error of logic that was repeated in all-too-many Canadian newsrooms:

  1. The US is in recession because its housing market blew up.
  2. Canada is in recession.
  3. Therefore, Canada’s housing market must be blowing up as well.

And so it was the fate of any number of hapless Canadian journalists to be given assignments to bash out pieces that fit this narrative. But these exercises were all doomed to failure. The decline in house prices in Canada is a symptom of the recession, not its cause.

Let’s look at how house prices have behaved since 2003:

Can_us_housing

US house prices have fallen almost 40% (all changes are expressed in per cent log terms: 100 times the difference in the logs), while Canadian house prices are still within 10% of their peak. There are any number of lazy analysts who have swallowed the faulty syllogism enumerated above and have concluded that ‘Canada is following the US with a lag’. This only makes sense if you think that Canadian house prices rose for the same reasons that US prices rose, and that they have fallen for the same reasons that US prices have fallen. This is not the case. As has been documented at great length here and elsewhere, the Canadian economy has avoided the worst of the bubble and its consequences for the following reasons (among others):

  1. We never had restrictions on interstate banking, so Canadian banks spread their assets and liabilities across Canada. (So it doesn’t matter if a local housing market goes bust).
  2. We don’t have Glass-Steagal. The investment banks joined the retail banks some years ago.
  3. We don’t have mortgage interest deductibility from taxes. So paying down your mortgage is a tax-free investment. So most people want to pay down their mortgages.
  4. (Except in Alberta), mortgages are fully recourse. You can’t just walk away from a negative equity home and hand the keys to the bank; the bank will come after you for the difference.

Yes, house prices have fallen. But the linkages that make the US story so compelling don’t exist here. We don’t have banks that are blowing up. We don’t have massive waves of foreclosures (even the Globe and Mail has given up on its series of articles that culminated in this silliness). Nor do we have much in the way of evidence that lower house prices are causing undue inconvenience to Canadians: when Maclean’s decided to jump on the OMGWTFBBQ housing market bandwagon, the best it could could come up with in the way of a victim was some flipper of 7-figure Vancouver condos who got caught mid-flip. Boo-hoo-freaking-hoo.

Moreover, it’s becoming pretty clear that the decline in house prices is not so much a national story as it is one of falling house prices in Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto:

Cities_04_09

Vancouver is and always will be a special case whenever we talk about housing prices in Canada: its geography makes it extremely difficult for developers to respond to increases in demand. This is the sort of environment in which bubbles flourish so I’m not going to pretend that I can predict movements in Vancouver house prices. In Calgary, the incipient recovery in the oil sector will no doubt establish a floor on housing prices there fairly soon. And there’s even not-entirely-bad news out of Toronto these days. So I don’t see just how the national index is supposed to fall by another 30% or so.

It’s worth following the housing market numbers. But they are going to be at best a coincident indicator in this cycle.

http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2009/06/the-housing-market-the-nonstory-of-the-canadian-recession-.html

reported by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

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