According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales, via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards, totaled 147,351 units in the second quarter of 2009 – the fourth strongest quarterly sales figure ever. Up 1.4 per cent from the second quarter of 2008, this marks the first year-over-year increase in quarterly activity since the fourth quarter of 2007.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, national MLS® home sales numbered 114,173 units in the second quarter, jumping up a record 31.5 per cent from the first quarter of 2009.

“Potential buyers who moved to the sidelines late last year when economic uncertainty peaked are returning to the housing market now that the worst of the recession may be behind us,” said Dale Ripplinger, President of The Canadian Real Estate Association.

Seasonally adjusted resale activity in the second quarter was up from the previous quarter in about 85 per cent of local markets. Quarterly activity increases in Toronto (45 per cent), Vancouver (77 per cent), Montreal (33 per cent), Calgary (66 per cent) and Edmonton (39 per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity.

Strong upward momentum for monthly sales activity was sustained throughout the second quarter. June marked the fifth consecutive month in which activity was up from month-ago levels. Some 41,304 homes traded hands via the MLS® of real estate boards in Canada on a seasonally adjusted basis in June 2009. This is up 8.7 per cent from May and represents the first time since January 2008 that monthly activity topped 40,000 units.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS® home sales climbed 17.9 per cent year-over-year to 54,616 units in June 2009. This is on par with the record for the month of June set in 2007 and is the fourth highest level for activity in any month on record.

The national MLS® residential average sale price reached the highest quarterly level ever in the second quarter of 2009. At $318,696, the average sale price was up half a percent from the previous record set in the second quarter of 2008.

The national average home price also scaled new heights on a monthly basis, climbing 3.6 per cent year-overyear to $326,613 in June 2009. However, only 13 local markets posted new average price records in June, less than a handful of which are among the most active or expensive. The strong rebound in sales activity, not price, in Canada’s most expensive markets is skewing average prices upward nationally and in some provinces, just as a sharp decline in activity in these markets skewed the average lower in late 2008.

MLS® home sales rebound in the second quarter. The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was up 1.7 per cent year-over-year in June 2009 – less than half of the percentage increase in the unweighted national average price.

The supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market continued retreating in second quarter. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings were down 16.9 per cent from the previous quarter to 197,049 units, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2005.

Nationally, the number of months of inventory was 4.2 months in June 2009. This is the lowest level since August 2007, and well down from the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The residential dollar volume for MLS® sales jumped 40.6 per cent on a seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter basis in the second quarter of 2009, to reach $34.8 billion.

“Low interest rates have improved the affordability of homeownership, as have price adjustments in housing markets that previously experienced rapid price increases,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Housing markets where negotiations recently favoured the buyer have become more balanced and the stage is being set for modest price appreciation as inventories are drawn down by sales.”

“Sales momentum remains strong going into the second half of 2009,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “Chances are good that the number of transactions in the second half of 2009 will surpass levels in the first half of the year.”

http://www.myseatosky.com/blog/?p=231

reviewed by Moishe Alexande, CFC canadian funding corp CEO

The story portrays a young couple getting their first mortgage. It talks about how cash-strapped they are, and the difficulties they’ve experienced in affording a new home.

The story then goes on to say:  “What really helped? The 2.75% interest rate they were offered. It ultimately allowed them to move from a $1,800-a-month apartment into their own home.”

The couple then warns: “But we don’t have a lot of [wiggle] room.  We can go up to 4%, but then we’re done.”

So, illogically enough, they chose a variable-rate mortgage.

The person who recommended a variable to these folks should be examined.  A variable–rate mortgage is the last option a risk-susceptible homeowner should be considering.  Prime rate can move 1.25% before you know it.

In Canada’s current cycle, the Bank of Canada has slashed rates 4.25% in 17 months. The BoC says they will go no lower. After moving sideways, rates will start rising.  Most analysts expect prime rate to jump at least 1/2 of the amount it fell (i.e.,  at least 2+%).  The main question is when…and no one knows.

Going back to 1991, Canada has seen the following increases to prime:

• 0.75% (In 1 month – Feb 92 to Mar 92)
• 3.50% (In 2 months – Sep 92 to Nov 92)
• 2.50% (In 4 months – Feb 94 to Jun 94)
• 2.75% (In 4 months – Nov 94 to Mar 95)
• 2.50% (In 12 months – Sep 97 to Sep 98)
• 1.25% (In 7 months – Oct 99 to May 00)
• 1.25% (In 13 months – Mar 02 to Apr 03)
• 2.50% (In 39 months – Apr 04 to Jul 07)

The above list includes rate increases over both the short and long term.  A few of the short-term hikes took place inside of longer-term rate-increase cycles, so their effect would have been cumulative (i.e.  they would have added to previous rate increases).

It is worth noting that prime rate has usually fallen within 2-3 years after rising. On the other hand, Canada’s key lending rate has never before been cut to 0.25% in emergency fashion, as we’ve recently witnessed.  Perhaps rates will therefore remain elevated for longer, once they start going back up.

Whatever the case, if you eyeball the data it’s clear that a 2% prime-rate increase is very realistic in a 1-2-year timeframe.  This graph of prime rate since 1991 illustrates that.

This isn’t intended to suggest where rates are going, of course. Past data is too limited and random to draw conclusions.  The point is simply that prime rate can move a lot in 1-2 years. Variable-rate mortgages are therefore unsuitable for folks with little financial breathing room.

A 2% increase in prime would raise payments 31% on a 35-year 2.75% variable mortgage.  On a $400,000 loan amount, that’s $463 more a month. 

If you’re a homeowner on a tight budget, and a 31% payment increase concerns you, don’t be seduced by today’s 2.75% adjustable rates. Look at a fixed-rate mortgage instead, or keep renting and build a financial buffer.

______________________________________________________

Sidebar: With mortgages, there are exceptions to every rule because suitability is dependent on individual circumstances. Always consult a licensed mortgage professional to see what terms make the most sense for your personal situation.

(Prime rate data courtesy of the Bank of Canada)

“Households in the GTA have become more confident in purchasing a home over the past three months,” said TREB President Maureen O’Neill. “Affordability, due in part to very low borrowing costs, has played a key role.”

The average price for MLS® sales was $407,716, up by two per cent compared to last year. “Heightened interest in ownership housing this spring has solidified resale home prices,” according to Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “The number of home buyers has been high relative to the number of listings, pushing the average price above last year’s level.”

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

http://eastyorktorontorealestate.com/gta-resale-housing-sales-up-19-per-cent-in-the-first-half-of-june/

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that the number of residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,524 in May 2009, an increase of 17.4 per cent from the 3,002 sales recorded in May 2008, and an increase of 18.9 per cent compared to last month.

Since the beginning of the year, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has increased 4.5 per cent to $506,201 from $484,211. However, home prices compared to May 2008 levels are down 10.9 per cent.

“The increased level of buyer activity over the last few months has had a stabilizing effect on home prices across our region,” Scott Russell, REBGV president said. “MLS® data continues to show a trend toward a balanced market in the region.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined in Greater Vancouver, down 36 per cent to 4,733 in May 2009 compared to May 2008, when 7,390 new units were listed. At 13,641, the total number of property listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) declined 4.7 per cent compared to last month and 16 per cent compared to May 2008.

Sales of detached properties increased 16.5 per cent to 1,402 from the 1,203 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2008. The HPI benchmark price for detached properties declined 11.8 per cent from May 2008 to $680,320.

Sales of apartment properties in May 2009 increased 17.2 per cent to 1,458, compared to 1,244 sales in May 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 10.2 per cent from May 2008 to $349,987.

Attached property sales in May 2009 are up 19.6 per cent to 664, compared with the 555 sales in May 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 9 per cent between May 2008 and 2009 to $435,848.

eater Vancouver in May 2009 compared to May 2008:

Detached:

Burnaby up 48.9 per cent (140 units sold from 94)

Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows up 13.4 per cent (144 units sold from 127)

North Vancouver up 31.4 per cent (134 units sold from 102)

Port Moody/Belcarra up 52.6 per cent (29 units sold from 19)

Richmond up 14.0 per cent (170 units sold from 142)

Vancouver East up 11.1 per cent (180 units sold from 162)

Vancouver West up 59.5 per cent (193 units sold from 121)

Attached:

Burnaby up 31.5 per cent (96 units sold from 73)

Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows up 43.8 per cent (46 units sold from 32)

North Vancouver up 31.8 per cent (58 units sold from 44)

Vancouver West up 54.5 per cent (102 units sold from 66)

Apartments:

Burnaby up 32.6 per cent (187 units sold from 141)

North Vancouver up 22.6 per cent (103 units sold from 84)

Richmond up 27.4 per cent (200 units sold from 157)

Vancouver East up 28.7 per cent (139 units sold from 108)

Vancouver West up 25.4 per cent (529 units sold from 422)

Information reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

http://www.realestatenorthshore.com/newsdetail-584.php