Posts Tagged ‘Calgary’

MLS® home sales rebound in the second quarter

Affordable Housing, Alberta, British Columbia, Canada, Community Service, Faith-based organizations, Financing, New Brunswick, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Uncategorized | Posted by admin
Jul 15 2009

National resale housing market activity bounced back strongly in the second quarter of 2009 above levels reported for the same period last year. Demand continues to rebound sharply in some of the most expensive markets in the country, skewing the national average price upward.

According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales, via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards, totaled 147,351 units in the second quarter of 2009 – the fourth strongest quarterly sales figure ever. Up 1.4 per cent from the second quarter of 2008, this marks the first year-over-year increase in quarterly activity since the fourth quarter of 2007.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, national MLS® home sales numbered 114,173 units in the second quarter, jumping up a record 31.5 per cent from the first quarter of 2009.

“Potential buyers who moved to the sidelines late last year when economic uncertainty peaked are returning to the housing market now that the worst of the recession may be behind us,” said Dale Ripplinger, President of The Canadian Real Estate Association.

Seasonally adjusted resale activity in the second quarter was up from the previous quarter in about 85 per cent of local markets. Quarterly activity increases in Toronto (45 per cent), Vancouver (77 per cent), Montreal (33 per cent), Calgary (66 per cent) and Edmonton (39 per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity.

Strong upward momentum for monthly sales activity was sustained throughout the second quarter. June marked the fifth consecutive month in which activity was up from month-ago levels. Some 41,304 homes traded hands via the MLS® of real estate boards in Canada on a seasonally adjusted basis in June 2009. This is up 8.7 per cent from May and represents the first time since January 2008 that monthly activity topped 40,000 units.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS® home sales climbed 17.9 per cent year-over-year to 54,616 units in June 2009. This is on par with the record for the month of June set in 2007 and is the fourth highest level for activity in any month on record.

The national MLS® residential average sale price reached the highest quarterly level ever in the second quarter of 2009. At $318,696, the average sale price was up half a percent from the previous record set in the second quarter of 2008.

The national average home price also scaled new heights on a monthly basis, climbing 3.6 per cent year-overyear to $326,613 in June 2009. However, only 13 local markets posted new average price records in June, less than a handful of which are among the most active or expensive. The strong rebound in sales activity, not price, in Canada’s most expensive markets is skewing average prices upward nationally and in some provinces, just as a sharp decline in activity in these markets skewed the average lower in late 2008.

MLS® home sales rebound in the second quarter. The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was up 1.7 per cent year-over-year in June 2009 – less than half of the percentage increase in the unweighted national average price.

The supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market continued retreating in second quarter. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings were down 16.9 per cent from the previous quarter to 197,049 units, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2005.

Nationally, the number of months of inventory was 4.2 months in June 2009. This is the lowest level since August 2007, and well down from the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The residential dollar volume for MLS® sales jumped 40.6 per cent on a seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter basis in the second quarter of 2009, to reach $34.8 billion.

“Low interest rates have improved the affordability of homeownership, as have price adjustments in housing markets that previously experienced rapid price increases,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Housing markets where negotiations recently favoured the buyer have become more balanced and the stage is being set for modest price appreciation as inventories are drawn down by sales.”

“Sales momentum remains strong going into the second half of 2009,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “Chances are good that the number of transactions in the second half of 2009 will surpass levels in the first half of the year.”

http://www.myseatosky.com/blog/?p=231

reviewed by Moishe Alexande, CFC canadian funding corp CEO

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The oversold story of the Canadian recession

Affordable Housing, Alberta, British Columbia, Canada, New Brunswick, Ontario, Quebec, Uncategorized | Posted by admin
Jun 29 2009

Canadian Funding Corp points to here – what is hopefully one of the last of a once-robust breed – The Apocalyptic Canadian Housing Market Story:

Judging by the latest real estate data, the Canadian housing market could scarcely be better. Average home prices are up more than 16 per cent this year, and in May they hit an all-time monthly high, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. By those numbers, Canada didn’t just sidestep the housing market crash that continues to plague the United States, it sailed right through it virtually unscathed. And yet, there are plenty of signs that the Canadian housing market is still sitting on some very shaky ground—and even the potential that Canada’s big housing crash is yet to come.

Yadda yadda yadda.

We all know that the proximate cause of the US recession was the bursting of its housing market bubble: it blew up banks, laid waste to personal balance sheets, and left millions of people stuck in homes whose mortgages were more than their market value.

And then Canada went into recession. Unfortunately, this set up the following error of logic that was repeated in all-too-many Canadian newsrooms:

  1. The US is in recession because its housing market blew up.
  2. Canada is in recession.
  3. Therefore, Canada’s housing market must be blowing up as well.

And so it was the fate of any number of hapless Canadian journalists to be given assignments to bash out pieces that fit this narrative. But these exercises were all doomed to failure. The decline in house prices in Canada is a symptom of the recession, not its cause.

Let’s look at how house prices have behaved since 2003:

Can_us_housing

US house prices have fallen almost 40% (all changes are expressed in per cent log terms: 100 times the difference in the logs), while Canadian house prices are still within 10% of their peak. There are any number of lazy analysts who have swallowed the faulty syllogism enumerated above and have concluded that ‘Canada is following the US with a lag’. This only makes sense if you think that Canadian house prices rose for the same reasons that US prices rose, and that they have fallen for the same reasons that US prices have fallen. This is not the case. As has been documented at great length here and elsewhere, the Canadian economy has avoided the worst of the bubble and its consequences for the following reasons (among others):

  1. We never had restrictions on interstate banking, so Canadian banks spread their assets and liabilities across Canada. (So it doesn’t matter if a local housing market goes bust).
  2. We don’t have Glass-Steagal. The investment banks joined the retail banks some years ago.
  3. We don’t have mortgage interest deductibility from taxes. So paying down your mortgage is a tax-free investment. So most people want to pay down their mortgages.
  4. (Except in Alberta), mortgages are fully recourse. You can’t just walk away from a negative equity home and hand the keys to the bank; the bank will come after you for the difference.

Yes, house prices have fallen. But the linkages that make the US story so compelling don’t exist here. We don’t have banks that are blowing up. We don’t have massive waves of foreclosures (even the Globe and Mail has given up on its series of articles that culminated in this silliness). Nor do we have much in the way of evidence that lower house prices are causing undue inconvenience to Canadians: when Maclean’s decided to jump on the OMGWTFBBQ housing market bandwagon, the best it could could come up with in the way of a victim was some flipper of 7-figure Vancouver condos who got caught mid-flip. Boo-hoo-freaking-hoo.

Moreover, it’s becoming pretty clear that the decline in house prices is not so much a national story as it is one of falling house prices in Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto:

Cities_04_09

Vancouver is and always will be a special case whenever we talk about housing prices in Canada: its geography makes it extremely difficult for developers to respond to increases in demand. This is the sort of environment in which bubbles flourish so I’m not going to pretend that I can predict movements in Vancouver house prices. In Calgary, the incipient recovery in the oil sector will no doubt establish a floor on housing prices there fairly soon. And there’s even not-entirely-bad news out of Toronto these days. So I don’t see just how the national index is supposed to fall by another 30% or so.

It’s worth following the housing market numbers. But they are going to be at best a coincident indicator in this cycle.

http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2009/06/the-housing-market-the-nonstory-of-the-canadian-recession-.html

reported by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

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Worst of real estate slump in Canada is over

Affordable Housing, Alberta, British Columbia, Canada, New Brunswick, Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan, Uncategorized | Posted by admin
Jun 17 2009

The residential real estate market in Canada is improving with estate agents reporting improved sales and economists claiming that the worst of the slump is over.

Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO, presents these wonderful news.

Although January showed declining sales, figures every months since then have been upward. In Vancouver, for example, sales were down 59% in January from a year earlier but last month they were 17% above those in May last year.

Nationally sales have been increasing every month since February. In April sales on a monthly, seasonally adjusted basis jumped 11.2%.

‘The worst of Canada’s recession occurred through December and January of this year. Things were looking really bleak. It caused people to be cautious. Now, thanks to low mortgage interest rates and a slide in prices buyers are more confident,’ said BMO Nesbitt Burns senior economist Michael Gregory.

‘The worst is over,’ he said but added that it was still too early to talk in terms of a strong and robust recovery.

Bank of Nova Scotia’s senior economist Adrienne Warren expects more positive news for June. Most activity is among first-time buyers at the more affordable end of the market, she said. In Calgary, for example, 70% of re-sales in May were on property priced under $400,000.

‘First-time buyers are coming in to take advantage of the ultra-low interest rates we’re seeing right now,’ Warren explained.

The recent growth is due partly to pent-up demand from the end of last year, and observers said this could level off over the summer once that delayed activity has been satisfied, and as rising unemployment continues to temper consumer activity.

In some areas bidding wars are breaking out again. According to Pamela Allen, a Re/Max real estate agent in Vancouver, she is busier than she has been all year. ‘My last three buyers all lost their offer because they were in a bidding war,’ she said.

http://www.propertywire.com/news/north-america/real-estate-canada-200906163222.html

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